There is no objective, rational answer to this question.
- Only switching when a new paradigm makes better predictions means you never develop new paradigms
- (heliocentrism made WORSE predictions of the motion of planets at the beginning, until accepted & developed)
- It is unknowable whether a paradigm will bear fruit until you try it. You don’t know if you’re 1-2 experiments away from a breakthrough, or if centuries of work will not produce anything
The signal for whether you’re close to a breakthrough or not is: intuition. Based on everything you know, does this FEEL like the right direction. This is what got us heliocentrism (it just felt more right, more beautiful, more correct, worth pursuing, etc)
The era of “mono paradigmatic science” is ending. Everyone pursues their favorite paradigm, and they compete, like companies competing.
Twitter review: https://x.com/DefenderOfBasic/status/1929528322532196544
BlueSky review: <pending>