This is when you make a prediction that:
- MOST people vote one way, and you are in the minority
- AND you are right
What that demonstrates is that you are on the frontier. You’ve added a new piece of knowledge to society.
This can apply at various levels. For example, you could design a test such that anyone who is a physicist will answer one way, and everyone else will answer the other way. This reveals a “novel” piece of information that is well understood in one community, but hasn’t yet spread. The ideal case is one where the community that gets it wrong actually cares about the answer (enough to participate & care about the outcome in a prediction market)